The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) have recently released some key figures from their annual report on the Scotch whisky global export market, the report is a fantastic resource and allows us to see where our treasured spirit is heading and where the most value is spent on purchasing Scotch whisky.

The visual top 10 markets list provides a brilliant summary of growth year on year for Scotch whisky's most valuable markets by both volume and value, while this summary view paints a picture of the state of the market generally, it also tells more in depth stories of the shifting behaviours among the top Scotch drinking markets in the world. Here we will look a little closer at what the numbers mean with some key take aways.

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Key Take Away - East Asia is a Reactive Market Region

When looking at the top 10 by value there is a clear trend of regional low market confidence. East Asian countries like China, Singapore and Taiwan are often looked at as the golden opportunity for whisky especially when the going is good, with a taste for high value products and rare whisky experiences. However this upside is also matched by a stark downside, the markets in the region are seemingly incredibly reactive to economic conditions, so when there is a suggestion of economic slowdown these countries are often the first markets to react and stop spending on perceived luxuries.

This is clear to see when you look at the value drop in China of 32% compared to 2023, while the volume drop has seen a minuscule 2% draw back. What that suggests is a shift away from the ultra-premium products while still purchasing Scotch whisky that might be considered more affordable.

The caveat to consider here is the scale of growth potential China still represents, with a population of 1.41 billion the volume of 30 million bottles is barely a drop. When you look at India for comparison with a similar population of 1.42 billion and imported volume of 192 million bottles you can see an obvious route for growth, though as we are currently experiencing, the upward growth does come with a market that may turn off the taps pretty suddenly if global economies start to stutter.

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Key Take Away - Values Have Grown Significantly in Some Key Markets

While there has clearly been a trend of 'buying down' where key markets have taken a step back from buying the ultra-premium high value Scotch products there have been some strong outliers that have seen some significant growth in the type of whisky products they are buying and the values associated with them.

India, the largest whisky consuming nation in the world has seen a 14% growth in the total value of whisky imported.

Spain, a close European ally of the Scotch industry given the perfect pairing that is sherry matured Scotch whisky has seen a modest 6% growth in total value imported.

Japan, a wealthy and mature whisky drinking nation, with a wonderful whisky product of their own has seen a 7% rise in the total value of Scotch whisky imported.

Türkiye, perhaps the most surprising market on the list with an astonishing 37% growth in total value of Scotch whisky imports at a total of £178m. Considering the population of Türkiye is 85.3 million its even more impressive to see this growth, especially when China has a population of 1.41b and import value totalling £161m.

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Key Take Away - Surprising Markets Become Strong Importer of Scotch

There are a couple of markets that make the lists that might not have been obvious choices to some.

Let's look at Türkiye in a little more detail for example, a nation that one wouldn't obviously associate with Scotch given its geographic and religious positioning. The country has seen significant economic growth in the last 20 years, growing from an emerging economy and touted to be a high-income economy in the near future with GDP per capita reaching all time highs in 2024 - A free trade agreement with the EU gave access to Scotch whisky more directly as the country experienced this rapid growth that has continued even post Brexit. An exciting market for Scotch in the years ahead.

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Key Take Away- Rapid Growth Economies Seek Out Scotch Whisky as Wealth Grows

Another country that has experienced a significant growth in interest in Scotch whisky is Brazil. With a population of 216.4 million people and an economy touted as one of the fastest growing in the world and a continually developing upper-middle income, it has become a key market for luxury and ultra-premium goods.

This growth has seen the volume of Scotch whisky imports accelerate by a whopping 23% compared to 2023 with a greater number of the population able to buy into a product that carries prestige.

This trend has been visible across the globe for Scotch whisky, being a product of enduring quality and prestige, it also carries with it a status. Where economies see significant growth in wealth and GDP per capita, Scotch whisky imports tend to increase significantly too.

As I have often suggested with Scotch - Where the money goes, the whisky flows. And Brazil, Türkiye, India and China are great examples of that.

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Key Take Away - Volume of Exports Has Seen Growth in 8 Top Markets

An important take away would be the growth in volume for imports in 8 of the top 10 global markets. This suggests the love affair with whisky is not showing any signs of slowing, the value of that product may change but the desire to enjoy the quality, heritage, history and prestige of Scotch is a key factor that sees the continual growth.

There is a point to note that the 2 markets within the Top 10 that did see a decline in volume of imports were Germany, down 6% when compared to 2023 and China, down just 2% when compared to 2019.

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Key Take Away - Some Markets Have Seen Impressive Growth Compared to Pre-COVID Years

Now there is some key market insight in the top 10 lists but when looking at the numbers a little closer and the global markets in a wider timescale is where you start to see that the recent drops in value are not the headline grabbing doom and gloom that they suggest.

COVID presented an incredibly challenging time for the entire world, with lockdowns, re-openings, social restrictions and personal income not being spent on the day to day. So it presents a very obscure picture when you look at the wild peaks and troughs of 2020-2022/23.

Scotch whisky takes patience, it takes time and it takes a long term view. Every 18 year old whisky you drink today was distilled before the first iPhone was even released, so when you look at the market and its trajectory, the same long term lens should be applied to give you a clearer picture.

When we take out those COVID years and compare to 2019, we get quite a different view of the state of the global Scotch whisky market. Volumes have continued to grow at impressive rates and values on the whole have seen considerable growth with some minor drop in markets that carry the largest share of value.

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Top 10 Markets 2024 vs 2019

The largest export destinations for Scotch Whisky (defined by value) in 2024 were:

USA: £971m               -9.1% on 2019 (£1.07bn)

France: £419m          -3.0% on 2019 (£432m)

Singapore: £310m    +3.5% on 2019 (£300m)

Taiwan: £298m         +45.1% on 2019 (£205m)

India £248m              +49.5% on 2019 (£166m)

Spain: £196m            +8.8% on 2019 (£180m)

Japan: £182m            +24.2% on 2019 (£147m)

Türkiye: £178m          +279.5% on 2019 (£47m)

Germany: £169m        -8.3% on 2019 (£185m)

China: £161                 +81.4% on 2019 (£89m)  

The largest export destinations for Scotch Whisky (defined by volume, 70cl bottles equivalent) in 2024 were:

India: 192m bottles            +46.6% on 2019 (131m bottles)

France: 177m bottles         +2.3% on 2019 (173m bottles)

USA: 132m bottles             +3.7% on 2019 (127m bottles)

Japan: 74m bottles            +22.2% on 2019 (60m bottles)

Spain: 59m bottles             +3.7% on 2019 (57m bottles)

Germany: 56m bottles        +12.6% on 2019 (50m bottles)

Brazil: 52m bottles              +22.1% on 2019 (43m bottles)

Poland: 48m bottles            +46.9% on 2019 (33m bottles)

Türkiye: 47m bottles           +216.2% on 2019 (15m bottles)

China: 30m bottles             +77.3 on 2019 (17m bottles)

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*data shared from SWA 2024 Export Figures Report, Image credit SWA.

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In summary there is often more to be learned than just headline numbers or opinion based on a 1 year comparison. While it is true the economy globally has seen a slow down, which has indeed reached the Scotch whisky industry, there is plenty of positive signs for continued growth and long term views for a steady, maturing and patient product.

The recent contraction is viewed as more of a correction of the market from the exceptions that were the COVID years and subsequent recovery. The consumer will likely start to see some localised benefit with offers on whisky products that might have been unobtainable in recent years, while cask whisky prices have been marginally lower as the demand eases slightly.

A great time to consider bottling your own cask of Scotch whisky.